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A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."